I would never break the law so I don’t bet on football games in the jurisdiction that I live in. Parlay cards and internet gambling are illegal here in Madison as far as I know.
But I like to see the “wisdom of the crowds”. Bodog is a great gambling site. There is no better barometer of what may happen than to check futures where people actually have $ on the table. Today I checked the NFL futures propositions.
Lets take a look at what the Bears have to offer.
Over under for regular season wins is 8. Currently over is a +135, and under is a -165. Lets take a look at what this means. Lets say you think the Bears will win more than 8 games this year (chuckle). Lest say you bet $100. If you end up being right (chuckle again) you would get paid $235. In other words, your original bet back, plus $135.
If you think the Bears will win less than 8 games (duh) you need to bet $165 to make $100. In other words, if you bet $165 and the Bears won less than 8 games you would get paid $265 (your original bet plus the $100 payout). As you can see, the odds are very much against the Bears winning more than 8 games. By the way if they win 8 there is a “push” and you get your original money back, less juice if applicable. I am not sure if Bodog charges juice or not as internet gambling is illegal in the place I reside in.
On the somewhat bright side, the odds of Matt Forte being named offensive Rookie of the Year are only 9/1, behind just a few players – Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Matt Ryan, Kevin Smith, my homeboy Rashard Mendenhall from the Steelers and Felix Jones. I just hope our horrible offensive line doesn’t get Forte hurt. Sadly, there isn’t even a Bear on the board to win the defensive rookie of the year. I guess if you have one you think will do well you could pick the field at 16-1. Good luck on that.
I like some of the individual player props up there too. The over under on Orton passing yards is 2470, and the bet is pretty much straight up on that. I would take the under.
How many picks for Orton? 15.5 they say. That is also almost a straight up bet. I think it will be under since he will get hurt.
Rushing yards for Forte is 875. I think he will do more than that, even dead Ced could manage it.
Receiving yards for Devin Hester is 615. The under is at -140 and the over is at +110. Clearly it will be under (and the action is showing this) as my co-blogger here has already shown that Hester will be getting hurt badly crossing over the middle pretty early in the season.
500 receiving yards for Greg Olsen? No way. But the people who are betting say not by much as the under is only -120.
There are also some bets for sacks, almost all of which are straight up bets. Tommie Harris at 5, Ogunleye at 9, and Mark Anderson at 7.5. Urlacher has an interesting bet, sacks plus picks at 6.5. The under is at -130 which is interesting.
Looks like the Bears are 40-1 shots for winning the Super Bowl, that is surprising. I would put them at 10000000 to 1. Here is a more interesting find at Bodog:
Looks like the guys who are taking bets pick Minnesota first, followed by the Pack, the Bears and the Lions. Personally I am thinking the Bears will be in the cellar.
Who will lead the NFL in rushing yards? No Bear listed. Who will lead the NFL in receiving yards? No Bear listed. Who will lead the NFL in passing yards? No Bear listed. At least Gould is at 16/1 for the most points scored by a kicker.
THANKS AGAIN RON TURNER FOR THE GREAT OFFENSE.
I’d take the over on Orton’s passing yards. 2500 isn’t that hard to get (157 yards a game average), and by all indications the defense is going to suck this year so he’ll get a lot of opportunities to play catch-up. For the same reason, I’d pick the over for his INTs.
Forte will get 1000, but Jones will probably end up with more rushing TDs. Matt will get a few TDs receiving, though, so it will balance out.
I’ve got a gut feeling that the Bears and Packers will be fighting for the division title, with the Vikes and Lions battling for the bottom. I just don’t buy the Minnesota hype that SI is pushing, and Detroit lol.
Almost forgot – for a defensive rookie I still like Steltz. He’s been a ghost in preseason but recent history says he’ll get his chance this season. I love Mike Brown, but he’s cursed with unfortunate injuries. Steltz will get time at safety eventually.
He might not look like much size and speed wise, but he was the heart of the LSU defense that won a national championship. He had a knack for making the big plays when his team needed it. If he gets that chance, he might be your defensive rookie of the year.
Astro – glad you are here. You are on crack to take Orton and anything over, as he will be a ragdoll back there. Injuries are a comin’. I would love to see Forte at a thousand – did we bet a sixer on that? I can’t remember.
Yea poor Mike Brown. That guy when he is playing sparkles but man what a bunch of crippling injuries he has had. I can’t believe he even can walk.
I haven’t followed Steltz. I hope he turns out like you say.
btw Astro has your sister said anything about how Rashard looks? I haven’t seen one clip of him so far this year.
I asked, and she answered “Who”? Her take is that he’s a backup/practice squad guy this year. BTW, she’s not my sister. In law, and all that.
Whoops sorry on the mistake on kin. Lets see…Parker is the starter, but Rashard is the number 2 and will get a lot of reps from what I read in the Pitt media. Your boy Mewelde Moore is their third down back. The Steelers are officially my second favorite team – or is it the Bills? Eh, I still have time to think about it.
Mewelde is in Pittsburgh now? I figured he was still with Minnesota. He’s got great hands and awesome quicks, so he should help as a third down back. He’s just a little too small to be a standard RB. I always wondered why the Vikes didn’t use him as a return man.
Fast Willie is pretty durable, but he’s not superman. If Rashard is #2 he’ll definitely get some decent looks this year. If he shines he’ll get an opportunity to do more.
Take those above comments with a grain of salt – she’s a rabid Steelers fan, but isn’t the most knowledgeable football fan out there. I’d put her in the “Big Ben = dreamy” crowd – she’ll be a huge Mendenhall fan if he produces, but she’s not the type of person who pays attention to the draft. Your sources are probably much better about his early prospects.
About the sixer bet – I’d intended it as a Forte vs Mendenhall bet, but I think you took it as a ‘Forte gets 1000 bet’. That’s cool with me, and I’ll take that one. The original offer is still open if you want it – you take Rashard, and I take Matt. The guy with the most yards at the end of the season wins a sixer.
Hmmm Rashard is the number 2 out of the gate and Forte is the starter, but what the hell. I should have more fun making emotinoally based bets rather than smart ones. So I will take both bets for a sixer each.
I have Forte less than 1,000 rushing yards, and Rashard with more rushing yards than Forte.
I am impressed that a guy like Moore can carve himself out a decent NFL career. I hope that a guy like Wolfe on the Bears can do the same.